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Here are five races where long-shot contenders could shock the nation on Nov. 8; we've also included how the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, which analyzes elections and campaigns, rates the odds. Or skip that race on the ballot?”Cook Political Report rating: “Lean Democratic”North CarolinaRepublicans are favored to win North Carolina, but only slightly. Cook Political Report rating: “Lean Republican”IowaAt 89 years old, Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley is running for another six-year term. Cook Political Report rating: “Likely Republican”WashingtonSen. Patty Murray, the third-ranked Democrat and chair of the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions, is the GOP’s white whale this cycle. Cook Political Report rating: “Likely Democratic”

Instead, data and child welfare experts suggest the changes may have done the opposite. State child welfare officials say more vigilance in documenting severe cases of abuse likely contributed to the increase. Child welfare experts say these findings cast doubt on the effectiveness of the primary tool that states rely on to protect children: mandatory child abuse reporting. These policies, the bedrock of America’s child welfare system, were first implemented more than half a century ago in response to growing national awareness of child maltreatment. “We are continuing to tell mandated reporters, ‘Report, report, report,’ and nobody can handle it,” Berger said in an interview.

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